Bitcoin price more correlated to FTX developments than macro events: Research

Published at: Feb. 10, 2023

The collapse of FTX and related developments did more to pull up or push down the price of Bitcoin (BTC) throughout Q4, compared to macroeconomic events such as rate hikes, according to research.

In a “State of Bitcoin Q4 2022” report published on Feb. 10, Messari research analysts Sami Kassab and Chris Collar found that the collapse of the exchange resulted in a 25% decrease in the price of Bitcoin.

How did #Bitcoin fare in Q4 22' in the wake of unfavorable macro and crypto environments?+FTX collapse caused a 25% swing, affecting centralized entities/exchange balance+Annual performance down 64% following halving trend+Active Addresses increased 2% QoQFull report pic.twitter.com/6hhSqNEVbr

— Messari (@MessariCrypto) February 10, 2023

The report highlighted that changes to the federal funds rate had a much smaller effect on the price of Bitcoin, even after 75 and 50 basis point hikes.

It also pointed out that active wallets increased by 2% compared to the previous quarter as Bitcoin was moved out of centralized exchanges to self-custodial wallets during the period

A research paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York earlier this week came to a similar conclusion.

The Feb. 8 paper looked at the links between macroeconomic news and the price of Bitcoin, finding that inflation was the only variable to have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin.

"Unlike other asset classes, Bitcoin is orthogonal to monetary & macroeconomic news." - NY FedEven the Fed sees bitcoin growing less sensitive to the macro backdrop as its liquidity expands.The maturation from speculative risk asset to base layer monetary good is underway https://t.co/9ACRAg78Hi

— Joe Consorti ⚡ (@JoeConsorti) February 8, 2023

The paper’s authors — research analysts Gianluca Benigo and Carlo Rosa — compiled data from Jan. 2017 to Dec. 2022 looking at the impact of macroeconomic news on various asset classes.

The study took into account many macroeconomic news categories, including inflation, the real economy, monetary policy news, and forward-looking indicators.

Related: Bitcoin price hits 2-week low amid warning $22.5K loss means fresh dip

The authors expressed surprise at their findings, concluding:

“The key result is that, unlike other U.S. asset classes, Bitcoin is orthogonal to monetary and macroeconomic news. This disconnect is puzzling as unexpected changes in discount rates should, in principle, affect the price of Bitcoin even when interpreting Bitcoin as a purely speculative asset.”

Despite the U.S. Federal Reserve continuing to raise rates at a record pace, Bitcoin has had a stellar start to 2023, increasing by just under a third from $16,557 to $21,888 according to Yahoo Finance.

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