$475M in Bitcoin options expire this week — Are bulls or bears poised to win?

Published at: Aug. 10, 2022

Bitcoin (BTC) has been posting higher lows for the past eight weeks, but during this time, BTC has not been able to flip the $24,000 resistance to support on at least three different opportunities. This is precisely why the $475 million Bitcoin options expiry on Aug. 12 might be a game changer for bulls.

Considering the current regulatory pressures in play, there seems to be a good enough rationale for avoiding bullish bets, especially after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission pressed charges against a former Coinbase manager on illegal securities trading on July 21.

The additional impact from the Terra-Luna ecosystem imploding and subsequent crypto venture capital firm 3 Arrows Capital (3AC) registering for bankruptcy continue to weigh on the markets. The latest victim is crypto lending platform Hodlnaut, which suspended user withdrawals on Aug. 8.

For this reason, most traders are holding back their bets above $24,000, but events outside of the crypto market might have also negatively impacted investors' expectations. For example, according to regulatory filings released on Aug. 9, Elon Musk sold $6.9 billion worth of Tesla stock.

Moreover, on Aug. 8, Ark Investment Manager CEO Cathie Wood explained that the 1.41 million Coinbase (COIN) shares sold in July was caused by regulatory uncertainty and its potential impact on the crypto exchange's business model.

Most bearish bets are below $23,000

Bitcoin's failure to break below $21,000 on July 27 surprised bears because only 8% of the put (sell) options for Aug. 12 have been placed above $23,000. Thus, Bitcoin bulls are better positioned for the $475 million weekly options expiry.

A broader view using the 1.23 call-to-put ratio shows more bullish bets because the call (buy) open interest stands at $262 million against the $212 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin currently stands above $23,000, most bearish bets will likely become worthless.

If Bitcoin's price remains above $23,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Aug. 12, only $16 million worth of these put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because there is no use in the right to sell Bitcoin at $23,000 if it trades above that level on expiry.

Bulls could pocket a $150 million profit

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Aug. 12 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $21,000 and $22,000: 70 calls vs. 4,200 puts. The net result favors bears by $90 million.Between $22,000 and $24,000: 1,600 calls vs. 1,460 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.Between $24,000 and $25,000: 3,700 calls vs. 120 puts. The net result favors bulls by $90 million.Between $25,000 and $26,000: 5,900 calls vs. 30 puts. Bulls increase their gains to $150 million.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

Related: Bitcoin braces for US inflation data as CPI nerves halt BTC price gains

Futures markets show bulls are less inclined to show strength

Bitcoin bears need to pressure the price below $24,000 on Aug. 12 to balance the scales and avoid a potential $150 million loss. However, Bitcoin bulls got $265 million worth of leverage long futures positions liquidated between Aug. 8 and Aug. 9, so they are less inclined to push the price higher in the short term.

With that said, the most probable scenario for Aug. 12 is the $22,000 to $24,000 range, providing a balanced outcome between bulls and bears. Considering Bitcoin's negative 50% performance year-to-date, even a small $90 million win for bulls could be regarded as a victory, but that would require sustaining BTC above $24,000.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Tags
Bitcoin
Bitcoin Price
Markets
Market Analysis
Cryptocurrency Exchange
Cryptocurrencies
Elon Musk
Derivatives
Bitcoin Options
Terra
Related Posts
Bitcoin’s sub-$40K range trading and mixed data reflect traders’ uncertainty
The phrase “hindsight is 20/20” is a perfect expression for financial markets because every price chart pattern and analysis is obvious after the movement has occurred. For example, traders playing the Feb. 28 pump that took Bitcoin (BTC) above $43,000 should have known that the price would face some resistance. Considering that the market had previously rejected at $44,500 on multiple instances, calling for a retest below $40,000 made perfect sense right? This is a common fallacy, known as "post hoc," in which one event is said to be the cause of a later event merely because it had occurred …
Bitcoin / March 8, 2022
Bitcoin derivatives metrics favor a move to $48K, but only after a lower support retest
Bitcoin (BTC) saw an 11% gain in the past week after the $46,000 resistance finally broke after 82 days. Many crypto pundits argue that Terraform Labs CEO Do Kwon, has played an important role in the price change, but is yet to be determined. A Bitcoin address thought to belong to Terra has now amassed almost $1.5 billion in BTC following a $139 million purchase on March 29. TerraUSD (UST), an algorithmic stablecoin, aims to acquire up to $10 billion worth of BTC to back its "dollar" reserve. On the macroeconomic side, there have been mixed feelings. The United Kingdom's …
Bitcoin / March 31, 2022
Bitcoin price drops to $43.5K, but data and BTC’s market structure project strength
Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling to break the $47,000 resistance and even with today’s drop below $44,000 there is still mounting evidence that the market structure is healthy. On Dec. 3, 2021, Bitcoin initiated a 25.6% correction that lasted 18 hours and culminated with a $42,360 low. Four months later, the price remained 18% below the $56,650 closing on Dec. 2, 2021. Much has changed over that period, and hard evidence comes from other sections of the sector. Between February 15 and April 2, 2022, enterprise software development firm, MicroStrategy, announced the acquisition of 4,197 Bitcoin . Inflows to Canadian …
Etf / April 6, 2022
Bitcoin bulls aim to flip $30K to support, but derivatives data shows traders lack confidence
Bitcoin (BTC) bounced 19% from the $25,400 low on May 12, but has investor confidence in the market been restored? Judging by the ascending channel formation, it’s possible that bulls at least have plans to recover the $30,000 level in the short term. Does derivatives data support reclaiming $30,000, or is Bitcoin potentially heading to another leg down after failing to break above $31,000 on May 16? Bitcoin price falters in the face of regulatory concerns and the Terra debacle One factor placing pressure on BTC price could be the Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) selling 80,081 Bitcoin, or 99.6%, of …
Bitcoin / May 16, 2022
Bitcoin futures enter backwardation for the first time in a year
Bitcoin's (BTC) month-to-date chart is very bearish, and the sub-$18,000 level seen over the weekend was the lowest price seen since December 2020. Bulls' current hope depends on turning $20,000 to support, but derivatives metrics tell a completely different story as professional traders are still extremely skeptical. It’s important to remember that the S&P 500 index dropped 11% in June, and even multi-billion dollar companies like Netflix, PayPal and Caesars Entertainment have corrected with 71%, 61% and 57% losses, respectively. The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points on June 15, and Federal …
Bitcoin / June 20, 2022