Bitcoin still lacks this on-chain signal for BTC bull market — David Puell

Published at: Dec. 17, 2022

Bitcoin (BTC) only needs one more key on-chain signal for a classic bull market to begin, analyst David Puell says.

In a tweet on Dec. 17, the Puell Multiple creator argued that the stage is almost set for the end of the BTC price bear market.

Puell: Bitcoin network activity "underwhelming"

Despite many calling for new BTC/USD lows of $12,000 or less this cycle, not everyone is wholly bearish on the outlook for Bitcoin.

For Puell, two essential on-chain phenomena necessary for BTC price recovery are already in evidence.

Long-term holders (LTHs) are resisting the urge to sell despite Bitcoin being down over 70% from its last all-time high.

At the same time, short-term “speculators” are feeling acute pain from recent price action. As Cointelegraph reported, these “tourists” are likely already mostly gone from the market.

All that is missing, Puell believes, is a rise in network activity from all participants.

“On-chain, three factors are needed for a bull: 1. Holding behavior from long-term investors. 2. Painful losses from short-term speculators. 3. Network activity across the board,” he summarized.

“Personally seeing 1 and 2. 3 is still underwhelming.”

He added that “favorable” macro conditions would aid the turnaround, as well as crypto becoming more resilient to “contagion” in the form of “exogenous and endogenous ‘swans.’”

BTC/USD traded at around $16,700 at the time of writing, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed.

A Bitcoin halving cycle like any other?

That perspective chimes with others calling for calm over current BTC price performance.

Among them is popular analytics account Dilution-proof, which on the day drew attention to BTC/USD simply copying previous bear market behavior.

Evidence came in the form of Bitcoin’s MVRV-z score — an expression of market cap to realized cap in standard deviations. Dilution-proof initially called the metric "Market-Value-to-Realized-Value Temperature (MVRVT)."

Currently, accompanying charts showed, signs point to a classic bear market bottom formation, Dilution-proof stating that Bitcoin “is just doing what it does at this post-halving date literally every cycle.”

Cointelegraph previously included MVRV-z in a list of "striking similarities" between 2022 and past price cycles.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.