Crypto regulation is coming, but Bitcoin traders are still buying the dip

Published at: Dec. 20, 2021

Looking at the Bitcoin chart from a weekly or daily perspective presents a bearish outlook and it's clear that (BTC) price has been consistently making lower lows since hitting an all-time high at $69,000.

Curiously, the Nov. 10 price peak happened right as the United States announced that inflation has hit a 30-year high, but, the mood quickly reversed after fears related to China-based real estate developer Evergrande defaulting on its loans. This appears to have impacted the broader market structure.

Traders are still afraid of stablecoin regulation

This initial corrective phase was quickly followed by relentless pressure from regulators and policy makers on stablecoin issuers. First came VanEck's spot Bitcoin ETF rejection by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Nov. 12. The denial was directly related to the view that Tether’s (USDT) stablecoin was not solvent and concerns over Bitcoin's price manipulation.

On Dec. 14, the U.S. Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee held a hearing on stablecoins focused on consumer protection and their risks and on Dec. 17, the U.S. Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) voiced its concern over stablecoin adoption and other digital assets. "The Council recommends that state and federal regulators review available regulations and tools that could be applied to digital assets," said the report.

The worsening mood from investors was reflected in the CME's Bitcoin futures contracts premium. The metric measures the difference between longer-term futures contracts to the current spot price in regular markets.

Whenever this indicator fades or turns negative, this is an alarming red flag. This situation is also known as backwardation and indicates that bearish sentiment is present.

These fixed-month contracts usually trade at a slight premium, indicating that sellers are requesting more money to withhold settlement for longer. Futures should trade at a 0.5% to 2% annualized premium in healthy markets, a situation known as contango.

Notice how the indicator moved below the “neutral” range after Dec. 9 as Bitcoin traded below $49,000. This shows that institutional traders are displaying a lack of confidence, although it is not yet a bearish structure.

Top traders are increasing their bullish bets

Exchange-provided data highlights traders' long-to-short net positioning. By analyzing every client's position on the spot, perpetual and futures contracts, one can better understand whether professional traders are leaning bullish or bearish.

There are occasional discrepancies in the methodologies between different exchanges, so viewers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.

Despite Bitcoin's 19% correction since Dec. 3, top traders at Binance, Huobi, and OKEx have increased their leverage longs. To be more precise, Binance was the only exchange facing a modest reduction in the top traders' long-to-short ratio. The figure moved from 1.09 to 1.03. However, this impact was more than compensated by OKEx traders increasing their bullish bets from 1.51 to 2.91 in two weeks.

Related: SEC commissioner Elad Roisman will leave by end of January

The lack of a premium in CME 2-month future contracts should not be considered a 'red alert' because Bitcoin is currently testing the $46,000 resistance, its lowest daily close since Oct. 1. Furthermore, top traders at derivatives exchanges have increased their longs despite the price drop.

Regulatory pressure probably won’t lift up in the short term, but at the same time, there's not much that the U.S. government can do to suppress stablecoin issuance and transactions. These companies can move outside of the U.S. and operate using dollar-denominated bonds and assets instead of cash. For this reason, currently, there is hardly a sense of panic present in the market and from data shows, pro traders are buying the dip.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Tags
Bitcoin
Bitcoin Price
Markets
Market Analysis
Bitcoin Regulation
Cryptocurrency Exchange
Cryptocurrencies
Okex
Stablecoin
Futures
Derivatives
Tether
Cme
Related Posts
Bitcoin fights to hold $29K as fear of regulation and Terra’s UST implosion hit crypto hard
Bitcoin (BTC) price initially bounced from its recent low at $29,000 but the overall market sentiment after a 25% price drop in five days is still largely negative. Currently, the crypto "Fear and Greed Index," which uses volatility, volume, social metrics, Bitcoin dominance and Google trends data, has plunged to its lowest level since March 2020 and at the moment, there appears to be little protecting the market against further downside. Regulation continues to weigh down the markets Regulation is still the main threat weighing on markets and it's clear that investors are taking a risk-off approach to high volatility …
Bitcoin / May 11, 2022
How Bitcoin’s strong correlation to stocks could trigger a drop to $8,000
The Bitcoin (BTC) price chart from the past couple of months reflects nothing more than a bearish outlook and it’s no secret that the cryptocurrency has consistently made lower lows since breaching $48,000 in late March. Curiously, the difference in support levels has been getting wider as the correction continues to drain investor confidence and risk appetite. For example, the latest $19,000 baseline is almost $10,000 away from the previous support. So if the same movement is bound to happen, the next logical price level would be $8,000. Traders are afraid of regulation and contagion On July 11, the Financial …
Bitcoin / July 13, 2022
All bark and some bite. China’s Bitcoin ban puts traders in the ‘fear’ zone
China bans Bitcoin (BTC) — again. No, we’re not traveling back in time. On Sept. 24, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) published a new set of measures to promote inter-departmental coordination on cracking down on crypto activity. The measures intended to “cut off payment channels, dispose of relevant websites and mobile applications in accordance with the law.” Most investors may have missed the $3 billion Bitcoin (BTC) and $1.5 billion Ether (ETH) monthly options expiry that took place less than one hour before the news of the crypto ban came out. According to “Molly”, a former Bitcoin Magazine contributor, …
Bitcoin / Sept. 24, 2021
2 key Bitcoin price metrics suggest BTC is primed to reclaim $40,000
Cryptocurrencies had a volatile week after Bitcoin's (BTC) sudden crash to $33,000 on Jan. 24. However, the sharp 9% drop fully recovered within 8 hours after BTC price regained the $36,000 support. On Jan. 26, Bitcoin rallied to $38,960 but it could not sustain the level and corrected by 8.8% in the following 8 hours. When factoring in the recent ups and downs, Bitcoin managed to only gain a meager 1.6% over the past seven days. Even with the considerable price swings, the aggregate futures contracts liquidations were relatively low. Longs (buyers) had $570 million futures terminated, while shorts (sellers) …
Bitcoin / Jan. 31, 2022
Any dip buyers left? Bulls are largely absent as the total crypto market cap drops to $1.65T
The total crypto market capitalization has been trading within a descending channel for 24 days and the $1.65 trillion support was retested on May 6. The drop to $1.65 trillion was followed by Bitcoin (BTC) reaching $35,550, its lowest price in 70 days. In terms of performance, the aggregate market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies dropped 6% over the past seven days, but this modest correction in the overall market does not represent some mid-capitalization altcoins, which managed to lose 19% or more in the same time frame. As expected, altcoins suffered the most In the last seven days, Bitcoin price …
Bitcoin / May 6, 2022