Bitcoin ‘cheap’ at $20K as BTC price to wallet ratio mimics 2013

Published at: July 9, 2022

Bitcoin (BTC) has not been this good value since it cost $1,130, one analyst argues as BTC offers a “compelling” risk/reward ratio.

In a Twitter thread on July 7, Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at asset manager Fidelity Investments, simply described $20,000 Bitcoin as “cheap.”

Timmer: “In other words, Bitcoin is cheap”

While fears that crypto markets could suffer further drawdowns this year remain, some believe that current Bitcoin price levels offer the kind of value for money not seen in years.

Analyzing the BTC price versus the number of non-zero addresses — wallets with a positive balance — Timmer concluded that BTC/USD is now back at where it was at the peak of the 2013 bull market.

At the time, BTC/USD managed to hit around $1,130 before spending several years consolidating thanks to the demise of exchange Mt. Gox.

“I use the price per millions of non-zero addresses as an estimate for Bitcoin’s valuation, and the chart below shows that valuation is all the way back to 2013 levels, even though price is only back to 2020 levels,” Timmer explained:

“In other words, Bitcoin is cheap.”

The Bitcoin price/network ratio is not the only encouraging sign when it comes to Bitcoin’s growth despite the current bear market. Timmer added that Bitcoin adoption still reflects the rise of the internet and that the Bitcoin network “appears to be intact” when it comes to its growth cycles.

When it comes to price/network ratio, it is further not just Bitcoin showing signs of solid investment potential.

“If Bitcoin is cheap, then perhaps Ethereum is cheaper,” he wrote:

“If ETH is where BTC was four years ago, then the analog below suggests that Ethereum could be close to a bottom.”

“0.5X downside, 12X upside”

$20,000 BTC should meanwhile still provide a “compelling” investment case even to those who believe that a 50% price dip is still possible.

That was the conclusion of James Lavish, a former hedge fund manager turned macroeconomics expert, who drew attention to the simple maths involved in a Bitcoin bet in today’s environment.

“At $20K BTC, if you believe that the downside risk is $10K and the upside potential is $250K, then at these prices there is a .5X downside and 12.5X upside. This is a 25 to 1 Reward to Risk profile,” he told Twitter followers:

“This is compelling.”

While hard to imagine this year, a $250,000 price tag for BTC/USD is in fact fairly modest by historical standards of price prediction.

Among its adherents is billionaire Tim Draper, who nonetheless initially insisted that Bitcoin would cost a quarter of a million dollars by 2022.

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