There's no doubt that the last couple of months have been bearish for Bitcoin (BTC), but throughout this entire period, derivatives indicators have been relatively neutral. This could be because cryptocurrencies have a strong track record of volatility, and even 55% corrections from all-time highs are expected. After two months of struggling to sustain the $30,000 support and finally losing it on July 20, the futures premium and options skew turned bearish. Even PlanB's stock-to-flow valuation model was not expecting prices below $30,000 for the current month. The model uses the stock-to-flow ratio, which is defined by the current number …

In the last 29 days, Bitcoin (BTC) has been ranging from $31,000 to $36,000 as the impact of the recent China ban and a $1.4 billion Grayscale GBTC share unlocking continue to pressure markets. China’s government implemented a series of measures to curb cryptocurrency mining and trading by ordering the immediate shut down of some operations and instructing domestic banks to suspend the bank accounts of entities involved in the industry. Meanwhile, the $21 billion trust fund Grayscale and its GBTC security is facing a troublesome period as institutional investors’ 6-month lock up comes to an end, creating a potential …

Bitcoin (BTC) investors are known for being bullish, and even during 50% corrections like the current one, most analysts remain optimistic. One reason for investors' endless optimism and belief in infinite upside could be BTC's decreasing issuance and the 21 million coins fixed supply limit. However, not even the most accurate models, including the stock-to-flow (S2F) from analyst Plan B, can predict bear markets, crashes, or FOMO-induced (fear of missing out) pumps. Traders usually misinterpret these concepts as value and price expectations can be easily mistaken. Bitcoin does not exist in a vacuum, even if BTC maximalists think so. Therefore, …

Despite ongoing vaccination efforts and pandemic aid, the world’s economy looks remarkably different than it did over a year ago. The new financial landscape and continued uncertainty have accelerated the shift away from traditional financial institutions. As the economy attempts to roar into high gear from a standing start, the world of cryptocurrency has taken to the main stage. It has cemented itself as a recognized asset class by major asset managers, investment banks and hedge funds. As the speed of mainstream adoption continues to take the financial world by storm, it is also paving the way for investors to …

Bitcoin (BTC) might have tested the $40,000 support in mid-July, but according to various derivatives metrics, there has not been a significant change in investor optimism. This situation either means that price is not what they are looking for to mark the end of the current bear market or that most traders are still underwater at $40,000. One of the best measures of optimism is the futures market premium, which measures the gap between longer-term contracts and the current spot market levels. In healthy markets, a 5% to 15% annualized premium is expected. However, during bearish markets, this indicator fades …

Bitcoin (BTC) has been ranging from $30,400 to 36,400 for the last 12 days, and it has been difficult to pinpoint the exact reason for investors’ lack of appetite. Some analysts have pointed to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) unlocking in mid-July finally giving institutional investors a chance to offload their funds, but this is not likely to be the main reason. Meanwhile, industry leaders have suggested that the “crypto regulatory crackdown” taking shape in the United States is severely impacting investors’ sentiment, and this view is especially problematic considering China has recently banned all crypto mining activity in the …

Derivatives data shows that Ether (ETH) traders are feeling less bullish when compared to Bitcoin (BTC). Even though the altcoin captured a nearly 200% gain in the first half of 2021 versus Bitcoin's modest 22% price increase, traders seem to be more affected by Ether's recent underperformance. Institutional flow also backs the decreased optimism seen in Ether derivatives, as ETH investment vehicles suffered record outflows this past week while Bitcoin flows began to stabilize. According to data from CoinShares, Ether funds experienced a record outflow of $50 million this past week. Take notice of how Ether is underperforming Bitcoin by …

Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped roughly 22% over the past 7 days, retesting the $31,700 area for the second time in June. The most pressing news for the negative performance has been China supposedly cracking down bank accounts of over-the-counter desks, according to some analysts: China cracking down on the bank accounts of #bitcoin OTC desks, this is getting serious!!! — Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) June 21, 2021 However, as reported by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin's hash rate dropping nearly 50% to an 8-month low could also have played a vital role in the price correction. Not even MicroStrategy's recent $489 million purchase was …

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls have little reason to celebrate the 25% rally over the past nine days. After testing the $31,000 support on June 8, top traders' optimism faded, and even the recent $41,000 high was unable to boost their expectations. Contrary to market sentiment, the United Kingdom's Financial Conduct Authority has indicated a significant increase in cryptocurrency ownership in the country. A consumer survey found that 2.3 million adults in the U.K. now hold crypto assets, which is up from 1.9 million last year. Another theory that has been proven wrong is the supposition that whales have been selling, causing …

Investors tend to define the market as either bullish or bearish, but sometimes the price can remain within a specific range for an extended period. This type of sideways movement is not necessarily stable because cryptocurrency markets have high volatility that stems from a range of uncertainties and the early adoption cycle. For example, investors who concluded that the Bitcoin (BTC) bull run was over after the first week of 2021 probably regret that decision. Starting on Jan. 8, Bitcoin price traded in a descending channel within a $10,000 range. The movement lasted for 26 days until it finally broke …

On Friday, June 11, a total of $565 million in Bitcoin (BTC) options are set to expire. This is significant because the last couple of weeks have been a massive deception for bulls. After all, the price was struggling to sustain the $33,000 support. However, an unexpected bullish turn of events led to an 18.5% hike from the $31,000 low on June 8 to $38,491 today. This strong move saved the bulls because any level below $34,000 would have wiped 98% of the current call (buy) options. Who saved the day? First, MicroStrategy, a publicly-traded company that holds over $3.2 …

Margin trading allows investors to borrow stablecoins or cryptocurrency to leverage their position and improve the expected return. For example, borrowing Tether (USDT) will allow one to buy Bitcoin (BTC), thus increasing their Bitcoin long position. Investors can also borrow BTC to margin trade a short position, thus betting on price downside. This is why some analysts monitor the total lending amounts of Bitcoin and Tether to gain insight into whether investors are leaning bullish or bearish. Are analysts flipping bearish based only on Bitfinex’s margin data? This week, some prominent analysts cited a surge in Bitcoin short positions on …